Tuesday, April 27, 2010

A Bond Rater Gives UC Its Marching Orders

Moody’s has rated the University of California’s bonds as aA1, and the university’s finances have been defined as stable. However, the high rating comes with the following warning: “The broadest pledge of revenues backing the University's various debt securities, General Revenues include tuition and other student generated fees, indirect cost recoveries, investment income and other revenues excluding state appropriations and gross revenues of the Medical Centers. The security features of the General Revenue Bonds is fairly weak, with no reserve fund, a rate covenant that requires revenues sufficient to pay debt service, the ability to issue senior debt, and the ability of the University to add and remove revenues as long as an event of default has not occurred. However, we expect the University to closely protect its market access and the strength of its broadest and highest rated security pledge.” According to this assessment, the UC can spend student fees, indirect costs from grants, and investment profits, but it cannot use state funds or revenues from the medical centers to back its debt. The raters also point out that the bonds do not have sufficient funds to service the debt, but they are confident that the university can protect its market access.

Part of the UC’s market access concerns the use of credit default swaps and other complicated financial derivatives: “The University has two swaps related to two series of variable rate bonds under its Medical Center Pooled Revenue Bond pledge, both of which are floating to fixed rate agreements. Only one of the swaps requires the University to post collateral under certain circumstances. The fair value of the agreements was negative $48 million at the end of FY2009.” While the UC is losing money on its swap, it is unclear how many other similar arrangements it is currently holding.

One of the main strengths of the UC’s finances continues to be its access to unrestricted funds that can be used for any purpose: “Sizeable balance sheet that remains highly liquid, with $3.5 billion of unrestricted financial resources ($5.9 billion excluding post-retirement health liabilities) and active treasury management monitoring a short-term investment pool exceeding $10 billion.” As I have previously stressed, while the university likes to claim that it has limited access to unrestricted funds, it is clear that it can use close to $6 billion according to its own purposes. Moreover, the retiree healthcare liability now moves $2.4 billion from unrestricted funds to restricted funds, but the university is really only spending a tenth of that amount on retiree healthcare, and there is no sign that they are actually saving $2.4 billion in a separate account dedicated to the healthcare of retirees.

One concern that Moody’s signals is the high rate of debt the university has taken on: “Significant capital needs likely to result in rising borrowing levels; debt outstanding has grown from $8.3 billion in FY2006 to over $13.2 billion in FY2009 and including new borrowings since the end of the fiscal year, a 56% increase.” This debt requires a huge amount of funds to service, and it unclear why the university finds it necessary to borrow so much money. Furthermore, the more the UC borrows, the more it has to make its decisions based on what the bond raters tell them since a high bond rating results in a lower interest rate, which reduces the cost of borrowing money.

Like the IMF, the bond raters hint to the UC that a source of financial weakness is their reliance on the state and the high level of unionized labor: “high susceptibility to regulatory and government pay or changes, coupled with unique stresses on California healthcare, including unionized labor.” In this seemingly neutral economic assessment, we find a bias against state regulation, unions, healthcare, and state funding.

Moody’s also slips into their analysis the idea that the university should increase the number of students coming from outside of the state: “In-state demand is so strong that UC does little recruiting of freshman from out-of-state. Moody's views this as an untapped strategic asset because UC could easily increase its student demand further if it followed national recruiting practices similar to most peer universities.” Not only does Moody’s think that the university should accept more out-of-state students, but it should spend more money marketing and recruiting them.

It is interesting to note that while the bond raters indicate that the UC needs to wean itself off of the unstable support for instruction from the state, they believe the UC will continue to profit from the money it gets from the federal government to do research: “The UC system collectively represents a vital part of the nation's research infrastructure, as evidenced by its status as the largest university recipient of federal R&D spending in the country. Total grants and contract revenue in FY2009 exceeded $4.5 billion, with research expenditures exceeding $3.7 billion. Grant and contract revenue has grown consistently in recent years, and given the University's prominent research position we expect it to benefit from a spike in federal research funding provided by the federal stimulus bill.” According to this analysis, research grants brought in an $800 million profit last year, and this amount may go up due to the federal stimulus. Hidden in this analysis is the idea that state-funded instruction is unstable, but federally funded grants are a growth market. The reality of the situation is that we do not know if grants make or lose money, and they are an even more unstable source of funding than state support.

Another major threat to the financial health of the university that is highlighted by the bond raters is the pension and retiree healthcare liabilities. These future projections make it look like the university is currently running a deficit when it is still showing a healthy surplus: “UC had generated an average operating margin exceeding 4% through FY2007. Beginning in FY2008, the University was required to report expenses associated with its post-retirement healthcare benefit plans leading to rising operating deficits based on Moody's approach to calculating public university operating margins. In FY2008, the margin was negative 3.1% with the deficit rising to 6.1% in FY2009. Operating cash flow margin, adjusting for the non-cash portion of the post-retirement health expenses, was 11% and 9% respectively. The deficits reflect $1.35 billion and $1.50 billion in expenses for retiree health benefits respectively in each year compared to less than $300 million of actual cash contributions to the plan. The University's retirement health and pension plans represent a significant and growing liability and expense of the System. We believe the University will need to take significant steps to either curtail the benefits or improve ongoing funding of the costs in order to sustain its long-term credit quality.” This complicated passage means that on paper it looks like the UC has a deficit, but that is because they are declaring a $2.85 billion pension and retiree healthcare liability, while they are actually only spending $300 million. Also, Moody’s is pushing the university to either curtail benefits and/or increase the funding for the pension and retiree healthcare, and if the university does not do this, the UC is threatened with a lower credit rating.

While it is necessary for the university to fund the cost of its pension and healthcare for retirees, the question is how much is needed and how does the projected liability affect current operations and the campaign to downsize benefits. Also, instead of simply reducing its profits by declaring a huge liability, shouldn’t the UC use some of its net revenue for future benefits?

Moody’s not only tells the UC, in subtle and not so subtle ways, how to spend its money, but it also pushes a risky mode of investment: “The long-term targets for the endowment pool would bring alternative assets (including hedge funds, real estate and private equity) to 35% of the total, with domestic and international equity accounting for another 45% of total assets.” While the move to increase investments in hedge funds, real estate, and private equity could result in a major reduction of endowment wealth, Moody’s often shows a preference for this type of investment strategy.

Not only do the bond raters want the UC to invest in volatile assets, but they also encourage the university to take on even more debt: “With expendable financial resources covering pro-forma debt by 0.8 times (resources as of end of FY2009 and debt as of current issue), and debt service consuming 4.1% of operating expenses, we believe the University retains additional debt capacity at the current rating level.” Like a pusher telling a junkie that he should increase his dosage, Moody’s neutral report appears to promote the very things that helped to cause the global fiscal meltdown: high debt, easy credit, and creative accounting.

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    แต่ก็ส่วนใหญ่อีกนั่นแหละ ที่เรื่องเหล่านั้นมันเหมือนความคิดที่ลอยฟุ้ง ๆ ขึ้นมาในหัว มีผลให้ตรึกตรองบ้าง
    ให้รู้สึกมีแรงผลักบ้าง และแล้วก็มักจางหายไปเหมือนไม่มีอะไรเกิดขึ้น…
    สล็อตPG

    ReplyDelete
  125. สล็อตออนไลน์รวมเกมสล็อตไว้เยอะที่สุดของทุกค่าย
    รวมค่ายดัง เยอะที่สุดให้ท่านเลือกเล่น
    เว็บน่าเชื่อถือที่สุดในตอนนี้
    ไม่มีประวัติการโกง
    สล็อต66

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  126. เว็บสล็อตออนไลน์น่าเชื่อถือที่สุดในตอนนี้
    ไม่มีประวัติการโกง
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  127. RR
    เกมไพ่ ตีไก่สามใบ จาก AMB Poker เป็นเกมที่ทายผลด้วยไพ่ โดยการนับแต้มไพ่ที่อยู่บนมือ
    โดยเกมตีไก่สามใบนั้นเล่นได้โดยไม่ต้องมีเจ้ามือ เพราะเป็นเกมที่ผู้เล่นทุกคนจะนำไพ่ในมือมาตัดสินกันเอง
    โดยที่ไพ่ตีไก่สามใบ จะมีการนับแต้ม 2 รอบ ต่อ 1 เกมด้วยกัน ดังนี้
    สล็อต888

    ReplyDelete
  128. สล็อตออนไลน์ดีที่สุดในเอเชีย ฝาก-ถอนไม่มีขั้นต่ำ
    แอดมินบริการเร็ว ทันใจ พร้อมบริการ 24 ชั่วโมง
    สล็อต66

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  129. ที่ไหนไม่แตก แต่ที่นี้แตกกันทุกวัน พิเศษที่สุด สมัครวันนี้เปิดยูสฟรี ไม่มีขั้นต่ำ อย่าเพิ่งเชือจนกว่าจ้ะได้ลอง ทุuหลัn 100 บวnหลัn 1000
    สล็อตjoker

    ReplyDelete
  130. สล็อตออนไลน์รวมเกมสล็อตไว้เยอะที่สุดของทุกค่าย
    รวมค่ายดัง เยอะที่สุดให้ท่านเลือกเล่น

    สล็อต666

    ReplyDelete
  131. เว็บสล็อตออนไลน์น่าเชื่อถือที่สุดในตอนนี้
    ไม่มีประวัติการโกง ฝาก-ถอนไม่มีขั้นต่ำ-สมัครฟรี
    สล็อต168

    ReplyDelete
  132. สล็อต 1688

    ในอดีตการเล่นสล็อตนั้นต้องไปเล่นที่ตู้สล็อตตามบ่อนการพนันเท่านั้น แต่ในปัจจุบันนั้นเกมสล็อตได้ถูกพัฒนาให้มาอยู่บนโลกออนไลน์เพื่อเพิ่มความสะดวกให้ผู้เล่น สามารถพกความสนุกติดตัวไปได้ทุกที่ทุกเวลา เหมาะสำหรับท่านที่สนใจการพนันรูปแบบการหมุนวงล้อ

    ReplyDelete
  133. bandar togel online royaltoto sangat diminati karena banyak yang permainana menarik http://128.199.187.54/

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  134. สล็อตออนไลน์ดีที่สุดในเอเชีย ฝาก-ถอนไม่มีขั้นต่ำ
    แอดมินบริการเร็ว ทันใจ พร้อมบริการ 24 ชั่วโมง

    สล็อต666

    ReplyDelete
  135. เว็บใหญ่ มั่นคง ปลอดภัย100% มีครบจบในที่เดียว


    สล็อต666

    ReplyDelete
  136. สล็อตxo

    เกมสล็อตเว็บใหญ่แตกง่าย รวมสุดยอดค่ายเกมไว้หลากหลาย อาทิเช่น PG SLOT, AMB POKER, ASKMEBET, ICONIC, JILI, KA GAMING, SPADE GAMING, NETENT, YGGDRAZIL GAMING เป็นต้น รวมถึงมีภาพสวย เอฟเฟกต์

    ReplyDelete
  137. สล็อต ฟรีเครดิต ไม่ต้องฝาก ไม่ต้องแชร์

    ด้วยกฎกติกา รูปแบบการเล่นเกมสล็อตออนไลน์นั้นเล่นง่าย สามารถเล่นได้ทุกเพศ ทุกวัย เหมาะสำหรับผู้ใช้ทั้งรายเก่าและรายใหม่ สามารถพกพาความสนุกติดตามไปได้ทุกที่ ไม่ว่าจะอยู่ที่ไหน ผู้เล่นก็สามารถเพลิดเพลินและสนุกสนานไปกับเกมสล็อตได้ เหมาะที่จะหารายได้แถมยังมีโอกาศได้ลุ้นรับรางวัลและโบนัสมากมายอีกด้วย

    ReplyDelete
  138. สล็อต ฟรีเครดิต ไม่ต้องฝาก ต้อง แชร์ ถอนได้ 2020

    slot (สล็อต) คือเครื่องหรือตู้เล่นการพนันชนิดหนึ่ง ซึ่งในอดีตนั้นเรียกว่า ตู้สล็อต (Slot Machine) ส่วนมากจะหาเล่นได้จากแหล่งคาสิโนหรือสถานบันเทิงในอดีต ตู้สล็อตนั้นจะประกอบไปด้วยวงล้อจำนวน 3 วงหรือมากกว่านั้น โดยวงล้อจะหมุนก็ต่อเมื่อผู้เล่นได้หยอดเหรียญหรือเติมชิป (ชิปแลกเงินสด) แล้วกดปุ่มหรือโยกคันโยก จากนั้นจะสุ่มเรียกสัญลักษณ์ต่าง ๆ และแมื่อวงล้อครบรอบหยุดหมุนหน้าจอจะปรากฎคะแนนจากสัญลักษณ์ดังกล่าว

    ReplyDelete
  139. สล็อตทดลองเล่น

    เครื่องสล็อตรุ่นแรกถูกสร้างขึ้นโดย ชาลส์ เฟย์ วิศวกรชาวเยอรมัน โดยประกอบด้วยวงล้อ 3 วง และมีสัญลักษณ์ 5 แบบคือ รูปเกือกม้า , เพชร , โพธิ์ดำ , หัวใจ และ ระฆัง และถูกตั้งชื่อว่า “Liberty Bell” ตามชื่อสัญลักษณ์รูประฆังเสรีภาพ ที่เป็นสัญลักษณ์ของการประกาศอิสรภาพของสหรัฐอเมริกา

    ReplyDelete
  140. เล่นเกมฟรีได้เงินจริง เว็บLuckywin98บริการเกมคาสิโนออนไลน์ กีฬาออนไลน์ หวยออนไลน์ เล่นได้ทุกวัน ระบบภาษาไทย รองรับมือถือ เล่นง่าย จ่ายไว ฝากถอนไม่เกิน 1 นาที ฝากถอนไม่มีขั้นต่ำ ก็สามารถลุ้นโชคเงินล้านได้ทันที มีเจ้าหน้าที่คอยให้บริการตลอด 24 ชั่วโมง
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    สล็อต เล่นฟรี

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  145. ที่สุดของสล็อตออนไลน์
    จะเล่นทั้งที ต้องเลือกเว็บที่ถูกใจ
    เว็บนี้ช่วยคุณได้
    สล็อต66

    สล็อต66

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